Mortgage rates aren't set by the Fed. They're priced off the 10-year Treasury yield and the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market — both of which react to inflation, jobs data, and Fed expectations, but only indirectly to Fed rate decisions.
When you hear 'the Fed cut rates,' what actually moved is the federal funds rate — a short-term overnight bank-lending rate. Mortgage rates might not move at all, or might even rise, depending on what the market already expected.
The real drivers of your rate: inflation expectations, employment data, Treasury supply, and geopolitical risk. Strong jobs report? Rates often rise. Weak inflation reading? Rates often fall.
Your specific rate depends on: credit score, loan-to-value, occupancy, loan purpose (purchase vs. refi), loan size, and points paid at closing. Two borrowers on the same day can get two very different rates.
Locking a rate is a choice. When you lock, you're guaranteed that rate for a set period (usually 30-45 days). If rates rise, you win. If they drop meaningfully, some programs let you renegotiate — ask about float-down options.
The best strategy: focus on the payment, not the rate. A 6.5% rate on the right structure often beats a 6.25% rate on the wrong one. And when it's time to lock, we watch the market the day of and give you a real recommendation — not a sales pitch.